Global air cargo volumes rose 6% year on year in September 2026, extending the growth seen in July and August, according to Xeneta. The global average spot rate reached USD 3.10 per kg — up 27% year on year and about 2% month on month. Capacity grew only 2% over the same period, so demand continued to outpace supply, lifting the dynamic load factor two points to 62% (source: Xeneta, reported by Air Freight News, October 2026).
By corridor, Northeast Asia to Europe spot rates climbed 5% month on month to USD 4.74/kg, Northeast Asia to North America rose 5% to USD 6.03/kg, and China to Western Europe jumped 10% to USD 4.26/kg. On a separate measure, WorldACD put September global tonnage growth at around 9% year on year, with Asia-Pacific volumes up 10%, driven by AI servers, semiconductors and data-center equipment (source: WorldACD via Metro Global, October 14, 2026).
Contracting behavior is shifting too. Xeneta reports that about 60% of new Q3 air freight contracts were for three months or less, versus 25% a year earlier, while the share of 12-month deals fell from 40% to 25%. With rates volatile, shippers increasingly prefer short-term, floating mechanisms over fixed annual pricing.
Impact on China-Japan lanes: e-commerce restocking and year-end retail inventory building are tightening air space to Osaka and Tokyo from October onward — booking 5-7 days ahead is advisable on popular flights. High-value, time-sensitive cargo (electronics, samples, urgent replenishment) should go by air, while bulk restocking can combine sea-air options to control cost. All figures above are reference rates; actual pricing is confirmed at booking.
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