The Shanghai Shipping Exchange published its export container freight index on October 30: the SCFI composite reached 3,687.35 points, up 6.01 points or 0.2% week on week — a fourth consecutive gain, though the increase has clearly flattened. By lane, Europe came in at USD 2,370/TEU (+19, +0.8%) and the Mediterranean at USD 3,350/TEU (+95, +2.9%), while US West Coast eased to USD 7,479/FEU (-42, -0.6%) and US East Coast to USD 10,199/FEU (-189, -1.8%). The Persian Gulf stood at USD 6,533/TEU (+59), South America at USD 4,371/TEU (-1,158, -13.5%) and Australia/New Zealand at USD 2,526/TEU (-27). All figures are SSE lane data and reference rates; actual deals depend on carrier confirmation at booking.
Near-sea and deep-sea lanes continue to diverge. Far East to Japan Kansai is USD 328/TEU (up USD 2) and Kanto USD 335/TEU (flat), leaving Kanto at a USD 7 premium; Southeast Asia is USD 1,164/TEU (+18) and Korea USD 351/TEU (-25) (Source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange, reference rates). The Japan lane has traded in a narrow USD 326-340/TEU band for about two months, far steadier than Europe or the US, reflecting a supply-demand structure that is relatively independent of deep-sea capacity management.
The more important story is the gap between published and concluded rates. November 1 was meant to be a coordinated round of increases, but per The Loadstar citing Linerlytica, weak cargo support meant the round effectively failed: Asia-Europe spot deals settled at USD 3,000-3,200/FEU with Hapag-Lloyd and USD 3,200-3,400/FEU with Maersk, before MSC, the Ocean Alliance and the Premier Alliance pushed quotes down to USD 3,400-3,500/FEU — well below the USD 4,500-5,100/FEU levels announced. Several carriers have withdrawn their November 1 increases. Drewry's cancelled-sailing tracker shows 56 blank sailings out of 715 planned east-west services in weeks 45-49 (November 2 to December 7), a blank rate of 8%, with Asia-North Europe/Mediterranean at 46% and transpacific eastbound at 36%.
For the China-Japan lane this means two things. On price, the near-sea trade sits outside deep-sea increases and blank programmes, so rates should stay in a USD 330-340/TEU band — there is no need to pay a premium to catch an early-November sailing. On space, deep-sea blanks and new Southeast Asia services keep absorbing sub-2,000-TEU feeder tonnage; industry monitoring puts six-to-twelve-month charters for 1,700-TEU geared ships at about USD 33,750 per day, up roughly 19% year on year. Carriers have little incentive to add China-Japan capacity, so space will only get tighter through November and December — steady rates, tight space.
Origin and destination need to be read separately. At origin, waiting vessels at Shanghai fell from 139 on October 28 to 113 on November 1, yet the share of ships in port for more than 48 hours rose to 36% (144 of 399) with a median stay of about 33 hours (industry monitoring basis). Falling anchorage queues do not mean faster container pickup: plan against the long tail and add 1.5-2 days of cutoff buffer. At destination, major Japanese ports are clear for a sixth consecutive period: Tokyo 93 arrivals, 4% over 48 hours, 19-hour median; Yokohama 99, 4%, 13 hours; Osaka 75, 3%, 13 hours; Hitachinaka 9, none over 48 hours, 8 hours (same basis). Japan's bottleneck is landside storage and trucking, not berth queues.
Practical guidance: from the second week of November, book China-Japan space 10-14 days ahead rather than the usual 7-10. Route time-critical cargo through Taicang or Ningbo, where berth certainty is higher. Split quotations into base ocean freight plus surcharges, keep validity at 7-15 days and state that the rate in force on the actual on-board date applies. Cold air and rain are forecast for the Kanto coast around Hitachi and Kashima on November 5-7, so direct-call contracts should carry a one-to-two-day weather buffer. To check specific sailings and door-to-door costs, use the rate calculator and tracking buttons below, or click sales@ruixincargo.com with origin, destination postal code, commodity and weight for a routing and cost range; call 400-6519-886, or reach us through the online consultation (Ruiyutong).