International crude oil posted its steepest single-day fall in nearly three months on November 2. Brent crude for January 2027 delivery settled at USD 104.77/bbl on ICE, down USD 8.66 or 7.63%, while WTI for December settled at USD 96.46/bbl on Nymex, down USD 7.66 or 7.36% (Sources: Xinhua Finance, China Securities Journal). The same day, seven OPEC+ producers agreed to hold December output targets at September levels rather than adding barrels.
The trigger was a softening signal from the Middle East. Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Baghaei said on November 2 that if the United States agrees to implement Iran's demands, the relevant arrangement could be activated within two days, security in the Strait of Hormuz would be restored, and Iran-US talks would follow; President Pezeshkian said the Supreme Leader had granted the government "certain authority" for peace negotiations (Sources: IRNA, Xinhua Finance). On the same day, however, Iran's military said a tanker struck a mine and caught fire in a "no-go danger zone" in the eastern strait, warning that vessels entering without coordination risk the same outcome. Navigational safety itself has not been restored, and the talks remain at the expectation stage.
Bunker spot prices have responded far more slowly than crude. According to Ship & Bunker data reported by Splash 247, Singapore VLSFO broke the USD 1,000/t mark on October 28 at USD 1,000.50, climbed to USD 1,019.50, and eased to USD 1,003.50 on November 2 — still roughly 92% above the USD 521.50/t level seen before the conflict on February 28. A vessel lifting 3,000 tonnes now faces a bunker bill of about USD 3 million, some USD 1.45 million more than before the conflict. Rotterdam VLSFO was quoted at USD 763.50 over the same period, about USD 240 cheaper than Singapore, and the spread is pushing ships to deviate for bunkering.
That is precisely why fuel surcharges are slow to move. Carriers typically set low-sulphur surcharges (EFS/BAF) monthly or quarterly on the average price of the preceding period, so a change in oil prices takes four to eight weeks to reach the tariff. The surcharge is also usually applied by bill of lading on-board date or sailing date, not booking date. Even if oil keeps falling, cargo loaded in November settles at surcharges calculated on high-price assumptions. The Japan lane itself remains range-bound: Shanghai Shipping Exchange data for October 30 put Far East to Japan Kansai at USD 328/TEU (up USD 2) and Kanto at USD 335/TEU (unchanged), both reference rates.
For exporters shipping to Japan, three actions are worth taking now. First, itemise quotations: show ocean freight, BAF/EFS, terminal and documentation charges on separate lines, state that rates apply as of the actual sailing date, and keep validity to 7-15 days so a single quote does not consume the whole margin. Second, if the oil decline persists through late November and December, write a bunker adjustment clause into contracts linked to the monthly average price at shipment, preserving room for a lower fuel component on December and January loadings; the same clause protects both sides if talks collapse and prices rebound. Third, do not delay shipments because oil fell — freight rates and space are separate curves, and year-end space constraints are far harder than a few dozen dollars per tonne of bunker cost.
One caveat: this sell-off is a message-driven unwinding of geopolitical premium, not a reversal in supply and demand. Global crude inventories have drawn down by nearly 1 billion barrels during the conflict, diesel stocks sit at 35-year lows, OPEC+ is holding cuts, and mines in the Strait of Hormuz have not been cleared. If talks wobble, the premium can snap back quickly, and forecasts diverge sharply — some see Brent at USD 80-85 if the strait fully reopens, while others have raised their December 2026 Brent average to USD 105. To check this week's Japan-lane space and landed cost, use the rate calculator on our site for an estimate of ocean freight plus surcharges, or enter your bill of lading number on the tracking page for in-transit status. Send commodity, packages, weight and the Japanese postal code to sales@ruixincargo.com for an itemised quotation, or start an online consultation and our team will follow up.