The yen continues to trade at low levels. Tencent News reported on October 13 that USD/JPY hovered around 158 in early October, after approaching 164 in summer 2026. The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to about 1.25% in September, but according to sources cited by 10100.com, several BOJ officials are cautious about an October hike, preferring to watch financial conditions first — rate-hike expectations have receded and the yen remains soft.
The weak yen's pass-through to Japan's domestic costs is already visible: energy and raw materials are dollar-denominated, so depreciation directly lifts import costs. Japan's crude oil imports reached JPY 1.41 trillion in July 2026, up 87.8% year on year (Tencent News citing trade statistics). Domestic prices, logistics and labor costs are climbing, and Tokyo Shoko Research data shows 5,373 corporate bankruptcies with liabilities of JPY 10 million or more in the first half of FY2026, up 3.8% year on year.
For Chinese exporters selling into Japan, the weak yen cuts both ways. On one hand, yen-priced goods gain price competitiveness in the Japanese market — this is a window to expand Japan-bound stocking and refine pricing. On the other, Japanese buyers face rising costs and negotiate harder, and a sharp yen rebound would create FX risk on yen-denominated receivables; forward hedging or shorter payment terms are worth considering.
Practical logistics advice: first, freight is mostly quoted in USD, and Japanese importers are increasingly sensitive to total landed cost — itemize ocean freight, surcharges and destination charges upfront to minimize currency-driven renegotiation; second, year-end stocking overlaps with the FX window and Japan-lane space is tightening, so book 7-10 days ahead; third, keep declared values and currency consistent with contracts to avoid customs valuation disputes.
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