Japan's Ministry of Finance released its September trade statistics preliminary report on October 21: exports rose 16.7% year-on-year to 10.9723 trillion yen, the 13th consecutive month of growth; imports increased 18.9% to 11.5088 trillion yen; the trade balance was a deficit of 536.5 billion yen, the fifth straight monthly shortfall (Source: Japan MOF, as reported by MoneyDJ, HKEJ and ETNet on October 21).
The China bilateral figures stand out even more. September imports from China jumped 16.4% to 2.7572 trillion yen — a 14th consecutive monthly increase and the highest ever for the month of September. Exports to China grew 8.6% to 1.73 trillion yen, the 7th straight gain, while the trade deficit with China reached 1.0272 trillion yen, the 66th consecutive monthly deficit. Zooming out, Japan's imports in the first half of fiscal 2026 (April-September) totaled a record 66.2754 trillion yen, up 20.4% — the highest half-year figure since comparable data began in 1979 (Nikkei, October 21).
By category, semiconductor-related electronic component exports surged 49.4%, semiconductor manufacturing equipment 43.9% and automobiles 15.1%. On the import side, crude oil values spiked 51.1%: after Yemen's Houthis imposed a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia and tankers rerouted away from the Mandeb Strait, Japan's September crude imports from the Middle East fell about 30% by volume, with recovery expected in October as Suez-routed tankers arrive. For China-bound Japan cargo, three forces dominate: electronic components, cross-border e-commerce and year-end sale-season restocking.
For shippers on the China-Japan lane, the report confirms the year-end peak rhythm: Japanese buyers restock heavily ahead of Black Friday, Christmas and New Year sales, while Japan's logistics labor crunch — the so-called 2026 problem — brings the supply chain to a near halt from December 29 to January 3. Booking windows for December arrivals therefore concentrate from late October through November. Book ocean freight 7-10 days ahead and verify PSS/BAF surcharge terms shipment by shipment; China-Japan near-sea rates remain among the lowest of all trades (Shanghai Shipping Exchange, October 23: Kansai 326 USD/TEU, Kanto 335 USD/TEU, reference rates).
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