Clarksons Research data shows that weekly container transit capacity through the Suez Canal averaged 753,000 TEU in the first two weeks of October, versus roughly 1.4 million TEU in the same period of 2023 — meaning the Red Sea return has crossed 50% of pre-crisis levels for the first time. BIMCO's October 14 release confirms the same picture: Suez container transit capacity has recovered to more than half of its level before the Red Sea crisis began in November 2023.
Carriers are moving faster: per Commercial Times and Shipping Online reports on October 19, Evergreen's CES service (Ocean Alliance) plans to run its November 4 Europe-to-Asia eastbound voyage via the Suez Canal and Red Sea — the first such attempt in three years — while Yang Ming's Far East-Mediterranean service in the Premier Alliance is targeting a two-way Suez return in November. Since July, 16 services worldwide have switched back from the Cape of Good Hope to Suez, and westbound transit capacity rose from about 75% of eastbound in Q3 to 81% in early October.
The market is watching three rate pressures: capacity release as shortened voyages eliminate Cape detour costs, putting downward pressure on spot rates; a delivery peak next year of roughly 3.5 million TEU of new tonnage, mostly on Asia-Europe loops; and demand uncertainty. Spot rates have already softened — per Futures Daily and Xinhua Finance reports on October 27 market action, Maersk's week-one November opening rate fell to USD 3,200/FEU (reference rate), and the earlier November hike expectation failed to materialize.
For the China-Japan ocean lane, the direct impact is limited: the route is a short, independently operated near-sea service that does not transit the Red Sea, and Japan-lane space and pricing are driven mainly by intra-Asia supply and demand. Two things are worth noting: a softer ocean market can widen your negotiation room on Japan-bound shipments as overall freight cost expectations ease; and for any cargo routed via the Middle East or Europe, recheck quote validity and Red Sea risk surcharge terms — returning to Suez does not mean surcharges disappear. On the Japan lane itself, booking 7-10 days ahead remains the safest practice.
For the latest FCL and LCL reference rates from major Chinese ports to Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya, Yokohama and other Japanese ports, check published rates via the Ruiyutong rate calculator, track in-transit cargo on our tracking page, or click sales@ruixincargo.com to send your cargo details — our team will confirm pricing and book space for you.